Media Information
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Released: 29 December, 2004
Drugs, human trafficking, counterfeit product and terrorism may be beneficiaries of tsunami disaster
Silkscreen Consulting, the consultancy, security and intelligence business of The Anti Money Laundering Network (which includes the Veritas Centrum business unit), is warning that organised crime gangs and terrorists may take advantage of the chaos caused by the Tsunami that hit on 26th December 2004.
Silkscreen Consulting, the consultancy, security and intelligence business of The Anti Money Laundering Network, is warning that organised crime gangs and terrorists may take advantage of the chaos. Nigel Morris-Cotterill, who heads the Anti Money Laundering Network and is a senior strategist with Silkscreen Consulting, says "we have identified several specific areas where there are increased opportunities for both organised crime and terrorism." The risks, says Morris-Cotterill, are common sense: as civil and military services are diverted to the immediate tasks of post-disaster recovery and security, those who would seek opportunity will find it. "We can expect to see military support from e.g. the USA ostensibly as aid but in fact in readiness for heightened security and possible action," said Morris-Cotterill speaking from Bangkok.
Civil and military sources are a finite resource although some countries do have a volunteer or reserve force that could be called upon. These resources will be stretched and there will be a reduction in the numbers of personnel available for border patrols, internal security operations and routine monitoring, says Silkscreen Consulting's Veritas Centrum intelligence unit. "We may see action against aid agency staff by lunatic fringes of some terrorist groups," says Morris-Cotterill. This threat is not seen as immediate but likely to grow as the aid agency and charity staff become less cautious and as the situation generally improves. "There are some in Aceh, for example, who would welcome economic collapse and a cowed population. After all, this disaster has done what decades of terrorism could not achieve and it would be naïve to assume that there is no prospect that some will try to capitalise on the situation. Kidnap for ransom should be regarded as a significant risk - Aceh is the home of most of the Indonesian pirates who plunder the Melacca Straits earning it the reputation of being the world's most pirate-infested waterway and during the past two years or so kidnap has become a profitable business for them so they already have the infrastructure." In Malaysia, the risk is different: there the island of Penang has been adversely affected. Penang has long been a transit point for contraband including counterfeit software and video products. "We expect to see a significant increase in contraband trade around the affected areas, again as it is presumed that resources to detect and deter the trade will have been diverted." In the case of Malaysia, this is probably a low risk, however, as the impact of the wave was relatively restricted and did not cause significant damage to the harbour or container port and resources are not having to be subject to such significant redeployment as in other affected countries. However, as contraband is often trans-shipped offshore Penang, it is possible that there may be increased activity by small boats. Malaysia, however, is not having to divert significant resources to its own disaster recovery and is even helping out in Thailand. In Thailand, the major impact was on the west coast. This is a significant transit point for drugs, in particular small-boat movements along the coastline where it becomes Myanmar. We therefore expect to see a significant increase in drug movements as both Thailand and Myanmar are having to make significant diversion of resources. Although Thailand as a terrorist problem in the South, and that flared up over Christmas prior to the disaster, that is not, to any significant degree, within the areas affected by the tsunami. However, there is some chance that there may be an increased risk of activity in the light of the significant upset caused by the crisis and by the death of the King's Grandson when the wave hit. We have to remember that New Year is Bangkok's big night out and there is a low risk that some might try to further upset the population by moving the south's problems to the capital for a night." Veritas Centrum is also warning of increased human trafficking from the worst affected areas of Thailand and also from Myanmar from which, at present, news is extremely sketchy. "Women for the sex trade and children for adoption are the most likely targets," said Morris-Cotterill. "We expect to see a booming market in babies claimed to be orphans. This already exists and IndoChinese children are often regarded by westerners as especially appealing, much more so than those from the other side of the Indian Ocean. This is a particularly callous exploitation of the misery caused by the Tsunami." The scale of the disaster will also lead to an increased risk of integration of organised crime into the areas affected. Money will be needed for stock, crops and plant and machinery and as a result organised crime may take up some of the slack in return for a share in businesses. In this way, organised crime will become a part of the vertically integrated market: crops and animals, transportation, distribution and sale will all fall under their control for a relatively small amount of money. There is considerable scope for entire districts to fall under the control of a single organised crime gang. Links: Silkscreen Consulting : Veritas Centrum Tel: +6 03 2142 7588 / +44 207 107 9512 ----- End Release ---- The Anti Money Laundering Network: Press Index The Anti Money Laundering Network: Home
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